Performance – Tail-risk hedge funds doubled their returns on volatility spike, One hedge fund quant profits by taking other side of selloff, Niederhoffer hedge fund suffers sharp loss, Bill Gross fares worst among go-anywhere bond fund managers in selloff

Near Term Trend: Bearish / Neutral

As of 2/6/18 close: 2,602

UPDATE: Sunday, I suggested staying short of ES futures until 2,532 is approached / tested and that we’d re-evaluate at that point.

S&P futures have cascaded down to 2,534.75 (the 200-day moving average) overnight and managed to find some footing there. Bounce likely in progress, then more downside.

Resistance on bounce:

• 2,626.25 (shouldn’t be eclipsed if 4:30am EST peak is to hold);

• 2,740.75 is the next key possible ceiling if 2,626.25 fails.

Support:

• 2,577.25 is “abc” support on 10-min. chart;

• 2,534.75 is 200-day MA (and Sea Change indicator support);

• 2,324.75 is 23.8% retrace of ’09 – ’18 bull market; 6,495 is the 23.8% retrace on NDX.

• 2,300 – 2,325 also comes into play if you believe the rise in yields from 1.7% to 2.8% since Trump’s election completely counteracts Trump’s tax cuts – while still leaving +10% effect for de-regulation.

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