Next week’s major market ranges: S&P 500, gold, crude oil, the Aussie dollar and bitcoin

The forthcoming trading week should be less exciting than this week, as the range math for many markets, many symbols of which may be opening near weekly lows, will likely facilitate sideways pricing more so than trending trades. That said, there may be some carryover trending character in the early part of the week before sideways pivot math and ranges that markets may need to digest set in place. There may be some excitement as markets ponder whether Bitcoin is actually making a major swing low, or just throwing a few bullish hammer candlesticks on multiple time frames as part of a short-selling buyback phase.

Actually, I am now theorizing that several markets are on short-term or swing lows and poised for reversal bounces. As I stated last week about Bitcoin and the S&P 500, which did reverse, no guarantees of any reversals are made herein, though.

Addressing last week’s predictions, I correctly identified crude oil, gold, the British pound as trending markets, with oil and the pound dropping over 7%. Additionally, my directional trade call on the pound dropping would’ve been a good trade, if actually placed when I suggested it might reject high pivots and test lower levels at some point. The hypothetical Yen short put spread or long position would’ve also won. My most accurate range projection was soybeans for a second consecutive week, which printed both highs and lows in my trade zones. My worst range prediction is the S&P500 whose lows were far outside my projections, and all extrema. My best avant-garde guess, as if I were psychic was for the “Bitcoin Bounce” news headline, before we find bullish hammers on the daily, weekly and monthly Bitcoin charts. A Bitcoin headline like this.

For market character, most symbols I track have sideways pivots and some sporadic narrow ranges, but the pound, the Aussie dollar, the Japanese yen and the S&P 500 are starting to enter narrow ranges and I can’t rule out a wide-range breakout before next Friday. The sideways pivot setups would likely soften, dampen, and taper the extrema from any such wide-range moves in these, based on probabilities (which are not certainties). If I had to dream up an exciting surprise event for this week, it is, potentially, soybeans with their quiet, little, green doji on Thursday’s daily chart sitting in monthly pivots’ fair valuation, hovering over those pivots almost deceptively distracting traders from its narrow range. Soybeans have tight, trending pivots and a narrow range within that spinning top (describes the toy that the candlestick resembles- not a market top) doji. As a setup, it allured me so that I priced a weekly-options strangle at the 990-970 strikes for about $400.00, but it could go badly several ways. So, my opinion may be to wait to see in which direction it breaks before planning a trade. The weekly chart is bearish, but the monthly beans chart is bullish. 

Technical curiosities on charts this week include the S&P 500 daily chart’s positive divergences in OnBalance Volume, Williams %R, and MACD, gold having a 50-simple moving average and 4-hour chart Low-Volume Node at 1304 under a daily chart hammer, and crude oil near the weekly 20-SMA, daily 1,000-SMA, and the monthly 50-SMA setting oil up for an Iron Condor possibility. The 2500 level is the S&P’s Monthly 50-SMA and Monthly S3 pivot.

Projected ranges/trade zones for the week ending Feb. 16.

S&P 500

Highs 2728 2698

Lows 2520-2490

6J yen

Highs 9314-9301

Lows 9150-9115  

Eurodollar

Highs 12418-12360

Lows 12198-12130

Gold

Highs 1347-1333

Lows 1314-1298

Crude oil

Highs 6227-6120

Lows 5866-5769;

Pound

Highs 1411-1398

Lows 1376-1365

Aussie dollar

Highs 7935-7875

Lows 7760-7685

Soybeans

Highs 1013-999

Lows 969-959

Bitcoin (XBT)

Highs 10771- 9549

Lows 6968-5490 

 

THIS PAST WEEK’S PREDICTIONS INTO FEB 9 VERSUS ACTUALS:

S&P 500

Highs 2827-14

Lows 2760-46 Actual: 2763-2529

Yen

Highs 9243-9209

Lows 9060-9030  Actual: .009247-.009087

Euro

Highs 12632-12580

Lows 12406-12364 Actual: 12508-

12240

Gold

Highs 1358-1352

Lows 1325-1322 Actual: 1349-1309

Crude

Highs 6733-6659

Lows 6420-6340 Actual: 6540-5888

Pound

Highs 1438-1432

Lows 1406-1397 Actual: 1417-1380

Aussie dollar

Highs 8056-8005

Lows 7904-7859 Actual: 7953-

7757

Soybeans

Highs 998-989

Lows 974-965 Actual: 993-967

Bitcoin

Highs 10712- 9889

Lows 7902-6900  Actual:  8660-5880
 

Note: No guarantees of mathematic accuracy are made herein, as these data are calculated by hand on Friday before markets close. While these numbers do represent my best good faith efforts, markets do change during calculation/report preparation time, including my “actual” range numbers often inserted before noon CST Friday- not market close.

About the Author

Trevor Smith is a registered commodity trading advisor who holds four degrees across multiple disciplines. His study of financial markets led to his beliefs that investors can be self-directed and that market moves could be predicted using a variety of technical indicators and mathematics.

 

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